The demise of us economic growth university of utah. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since solows seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a. Introduction the prospects for future longrun us economic growth were already dismal in 2007 but were. Now we combine the historical record with a provocative fantasy. Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds robert j. I have recently gordon 2014a restated the case for slow growth over the long run. Human history teaches us, however, that economic growth springs from better recipes, not just from more cooking. Knowledge, technology, and growth in longterm perspective 2. The short run meets the long run robert gordon distinguishing between secular.
It questions the assumption, nearly universal since solows seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. Stiroh t he mid1990s was a time of uncertainty for analysts of u. The economy of the united states is highly developed and mixed. The impact of hiv and aids on africas economic development. But the point of this article is that it is likely to be much worse than any epoch of us growth since the civil war. Development of the american economy, economic fluctuations and growth, productivity, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Hiv epidemic has slowed economic growth and over all development in. Global growth is slowing especially in advancedtechnology economies. This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic. Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds robert j gordon northwestern university and cepr cepr policy insight no. Economic stagnation is a prolonged period of slow economic growth traditionally measured in terms of the gdp growth, usually accompanied by high unemployment. Hundred eleventh annual meeting of the american economic association may, 1999, pp. The sources of the decline in productivity growth combine. This reversal hinges both on the us single one big wave gordon 1999 and on the disruptions caused by wwii.